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Too many voters who voted Nana Addo have disserted DMB while JDM has largely retain his supporters, Global Info Analytics

Providing detail data on the April poll with regards to voting intentions of party supporters, floating voters and those who did not disclose their party affiliation. Additionally, we present the polls on voting intentions of voters who voted for Nana Addo and Mahama in 2020. The aim is to provide underlying reasons for JDM lead in the poll. We will provide similar data on the US election so follower can compare and contrast.

The poll shows that 8.6% of NPP voters intend to vote for JDM, 78.7% will vote for DMB, 7% will vote for AKK, 1% for others, 1.6% are undecided and 3.1% will not vote. Among those who say they are NDC, 96% intend to vote for JDM, 2.2% will vote for DMB, 0.8% for AKK, 1.3% for others, 0.4% are undecided and 0.1% will not vote. Among floating voters, 48.1% for JDM, 16.1% for DMB, 10.7% for AKK, 8.3% for others, 10.8% are undecided and 6% will not vote. For those who declined to disclose their party affiliations, 30.7% intend to vote for JDM, 18.1% will vote for DMB, 8.2% for AKK, 5.5% others, 21.1% undecided, and 16.4% will not vote. The data shows that the NDC is more energized and solidly behind JDM while the NPP is not solidly behind DMB and unlikely to turnout in their numbers at the poll, resulting in lower turnout among the base.

Crucially, looking at the race from the 2020 voters provides additional evidence of DMB struggle in the national poll. Among voters who voted for Nana Addo in the 2020 elections, only 59.6% will vote for DMB, 18.9% will vote for JDM, 9.4% for AKK, 3.1% others, 4.1% are undecided and 4.9% will not vote. For those who voted for JDM, 92.1% will still vote for him, 3.1% will vote for DMB, 1.6% for AKK, 1.1% for others, 1.1% are undecided and 1% will not vote. Among those who did not vote, comprising of first-time voters and other voters who could not vote for one reason or the other, 40% intend to vote for JDM, 18.4% for DMB, 8.8% for AKK, 7.5% others, 10% are undecided and 15.3% will still not vote.

Compare and contrast Ghana’s election polling data to that of the US and you will see why the US election is close but that of Ghana is not, at least going by the current polls. Too many voters who voted Nana Addo have disserted DMB while JDM has largely retain his supporters and leads by a significantly margin among those who did not vote. These are the fundamental reasons for JDM lead in the polls.

Data in supporting

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